Export growth picked up in March, and the trade deficit in January-February reversed; the impact of the epidemic on exports will become more apparent from April.
 
1. Export growth rebounded in March, and the trade deficit in January-February reversed
 
The General Administration of Customs announced the cumulative import and export data for March and the first quarter of this year. The main information related to some furniture exports is as follows (in RMB):
 
The export value of furniture and parts in March was 24.39 billion yuan, and the cumulative export value from January to March was 68.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the cumulative data from January to February, and a decrease of 18.7% from the same period in 2019 (year-on-year).
 
From January to March, the total exports of furniture, lamps, lighting fixtures and parts, ceramic products and textile products related to four industries were 290.57 billion yuan, an increase of 61.1% from the cumulative data from January to February.
 
In addition to furniture, textiles were 158.53 billion yuan, down 12.7% year-on-year; lamps and lanterns were 36.32 billion yuan, down 19.3%; ceramics were 26.95 billion yuan, down 23%.
 
Overall, in the first quarter of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 6.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. Among them, exports were 3.3 trillion yuan, down 11.4%; imports were 3.2 trillion yuan, down 0.7%; exports were slightly higher than imports, and the trade deficit in January-February was reversed.
 
In addition, exports in March were 1.3 trillion, and the growth rate rebounded. Mainly due to the backlog of export orders during the January-February shutdown, deliveries were delivered in March. Looking at each country, the growth rate of exports to major trading partners such as the United States, ASEAN, the European Union, and Japan has rebounded.

2. The foreign trade situation is not optimistic, export pressure is far greater than imports
 
Considering that it takes a certain time window for export settlement and order fulfillment, the foreign trade data in the first quarter did not actually reflect the pressure of China's foreign trade industry. It only temporarily showed the decline in domestic foreign trade turnover caused by insufficient construction in the early stage of the epidemic. The impact of overseas epidemic spread and cancellation of Chinese orders has not yet been reflected.
 
The Bank of Communications Financial Research Center said that export companies generally responded to the lack of new orders, and exports faced greater pressure in the second quarter.
 
Yuekai Securities Research Institute made a more detailed analysis. They said in the report that as of April 13, Beijing time, a total of 21 countries except China had a cumulative number of confirmed cases exceeding 10,000. Of exports accounted for 41.8% of total exports.
 
"The impact of the epidemic on exports will become more apparent from April, and China's trade balance may turn negative again," said Li Qilin, director of the Guangdong Development Securities Research Institute.

03. The General Administration of Customs said that it is confident to stabilize the basic foreign trade plate

What do you think?
 
Li Kuiwen, director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, pointed out that problems such as shrinking demand in the international market and new orders for foreign trade are gradually emerging. The difficulties facing China's foreign trade development cannot be underestimated. But at the same time, we must also see that China's foreign trade is tough and competitive, and the innovation and market development capabilities of Chinese enterprises are also very strong.
 
"We are confident to stabilize the basic foreign trade plate and minimize the impact of the epidemic on China's imports and exports." He said.
 
Are you confident?