With the support of unexpected import and export data, the market has already expected the so-called "V-shaped" reversal of the Chinese economy.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's US dollar-denominated exports in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year (previous value 0.5%). This is mainly driven by the gradual resumption of overseas work. Several major export destinations have improved data, such as an increase of 17% to the EU (previous value of 13%) and an increase of 13% to the United States (previous value of 1%).

The leading Purchasing Managers Index also confirms the authenticity of the improved export data. China's manufacturing MPMI rose to 51.1% in July. However, as the Everbright Securities Research Institute learned in a report, there are still hidden worries about future exports.

First of all, the repeated epidemic situation still caused disturbances to the global supply chain. According to the data, China's imported processing trade imports in July fell again by 8.5% year-on-year (previous value -0.9%), which implies that the export data in the market outlook has deteriorated; After the curve of overseas epidemics has gradually flattened, exports of epidemic prevention materials have gradually fallen. In July, the proportion of textile yarn products and medical equipment in total exports has decreased. Finally, although the recovery of the global economy is a matter of time, short-term ups and downs will also suppress the height of China's export rebound, thereby affecting the strength of China's economic recovery.

Hong Hao, Chief Strategy Officer of Bank of Communications International, mentioned in the report that Chinese consumer confidence is still very sluggish. This reflects that the consumption part of the real economy is still weak and the real economy is still struggling to recover, so help is still needed.

"We will not be confused by the strong export of medical supplies and the resulting better-than-expected trade balance, nor will we be confused by improved PMI and high-frequency data. These observations show that if overseas demand shrinks further in the second half of the year, manufacturing The strong momentum of the industry may not be sustainable."