LAS VEGAS — The bedding industry will enjoy modest growth this year, according to Furniture/Today's Consensus Bedding Forecast.

The forecast, developed with estimates from almost three dozen bedding producers, envisions unit growth this year of 3.2% with the dollar value of bedding shipments growing by 3.7% - solid but not spectacular gains.

The Furniture/Today forecast is more conservative than one released by the International Sleep Products Assn. last fall, which sees unit gains of 3.5% this year and dollar growth of 5.7%.

Furniture/Today released the bedding forecast here at a presentation at the Las Vegas Market sponsored by the World Market Center and the newspaper. More than 100 marketgoers attended.

The session also featured a panel of bedding producers, suppliers and retailers, who shared their insights on business prospects this year. Taking part were Jodi Allen, chief marketing officer of Sealy; Tony Smith, president of Simmons; Dwayne Welch, executive vice president of Hickory Springs, and Chuck Kill, CEO of Tucson, Ariz.-based Bedmart.

The Consensus Bedding Forecast is developed each year by Furniture/Today from estimates supplied by producers. Sharing their estimates for the 2011 forecast were executives with most of the Top 15 bedding producers, as well as several Tier-Two producers. Together, the producers participating in the survey account for more than 90% of U.S. bedding shipments.

Furniture/Today developed its Consensus Bedding Forecast by combining the estimates from producers, then weighting the figures based on each producer's market share.

The producers offered a number of business insights as they shared their estimates of bedding business this year.

On the negative side of the ledger, they said economic worries, including a lackluster housing market and relatively high unemployment, remain troublesome. Also of concern, they said, is a business climate in which bedding gains are only achieved by heavy promotional efforts.

But the producers also see some positives taking shape this year. They expect business to improve as the year unfolds, and they say aggressive moves by retailers and manufacturers will pay dividends. There also is a school of thought holding that the specialty sleep segment, a premium product category, will spark overall gains at the upper end of the market.