The bedding industry will see a 4% jump in the wholesale value of bedding shipments this year and a 1.2% unit gain, according to the latest forecast issued by the International Sleep Products Assn.

Stronger growth for the industry is expected in 2015 and 2016, the forecast says.

ISPA’s forecast panel is now calling for 4.5% growth in the wholesale value of bedding shipments next year and 2% unit growth that year. In 2016, the panel is predicting a 5% increase in the wholesale value of bedding shipments and a 2.5% unit gain. This is the panel’s first look at business prospects in 2016.

The latest forecast for 2014 reflects stronger dollar growth than in ISPA’s April forecast, when dollar growth of 2.5% was predicted. But it reflects weaker unit growth than in the April forecast, when a 2% unit gain for 2014 was forecast. ISPA issues forecasts in April and October.

“The slight growth in unit shipments in 2014 could be attributed in part to a decline in housing resales in the first half of 2014 due to unexpectedly bad winter weather combined with the continuing effects of mortgage rate hikes from 2013,” the ISPA forecast report said.

Looking down the road, the report said: “For 2015 and 2016, the panel forecasts further increases in the value of shipments and units shipped as the economy grows stronger and the housing market continues to recover.”

The latest forecast sees slower growth next year than the forecast panel envisioned in its April 2014 forecast, when 5.5% dollar growth and 4% unit growth were predicted.

ISPA said that average unit prices are projected to increase by 2.8% in 2014, and by 2.5% in 2015 and again in 2016, roughly tracking consumer price inflation.

ISPA said its forecasting process begins with an econometric model that generates a baseline industry forecast based on the current outlook for the national economy prepared by the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics at the University of Michigan. The members of ISPA’s Statistics Committee, which serves as the ISPA Forecast Panel, adjust the results of the econometric model to produce a forecast based on the average of their individual predictions.

Jerry Epperson, a member of the forecast panel and a long-time bedding analyst, offers his opinions on the forecasts in his “Another Perspective” column, distributed with the forecasts.

“In my opinion,” he wrote, “this is a low-risk forecast that can be boosted as results dictate. For now, we see both unit gains and continued price/size/quality increases that should keep dollar sales well above unit gains. After a difficult year in 2013, higher priced non-innerspring units appear to be recovering, too. In summary, this forecast should help us all sleep better – and not just because we are making better mattresses.”